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Category: Sports Analysis
Tags: AnalyticsFootballPredictionsSportsTennis
Entities: AlabamaAlcarezBill ConnellyClemsonEric BradloESPNGeorgiaNotre DameOhio StateOregonPenn StateSabalenkaShane JensenSinnerSwiatekTexasTexas TechWharton Moneyball
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Welcome everybody to Wharton Moneyball here on the Wharton podcast network. This is Eric Bradlo, professor of marketing statistics and data science here at the Wharton School.
Today I'm joined by my co-host, longtime friend and collaborator Shane Jensen. Uh some combination of the two of us, Kade Massie and Audi Winer are here every
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week on Wharton Moneyball. Um Shane, I've always said the best part of our show, we know it's not the pay we get.
We know it's not the glory. Although I did show you tell you guys my story that I was a at a winery in Oregon and a guy
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came up to me and said, "You're the Wharton Moneyball guy." That was priceless. Let me just tell you, Shane.
But the real best part of our show is that we get talk to we get to talk to people that are doing sports analytics, the intersection of the two right in the
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field, the people that are living it, breathing it. And today, certainly a longtime guest of the show, uh, someone who needs no introduction to our Wharton Moneyball audience, and that's Bill Connelly.
Bill's going to talk to us today about lots of topics, tennis, college football, etc. But Bill, as
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always, welcome back to Wharton Moneyball. >> Always always fun.
I'm just hoping that my uh dogs don't bark too much. They're trying to I I can never be too professional here.
So, um, >> well, we're we're informal here, as you know, on Morton Moneyball. So, Bill, just so everybody knows, where what
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what's your actual title right now? Where can people follow you?
Where can they see the content? Well, we know content from you is all over the place now, but you if you could just tell our listeners your title, where to find your content, etc., that'd be great.
>> Uh, I think the title is pretty
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straight. It's just staff writer uh with ESPN.com.
But, yeah, obviously obviously the intention there was mostly college football and remains mostly college football. But once I was kind of in the in the walls, they couldn't get rid of me.
And suddenly I'm doing tennis and soccer and softball and and a number of
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other things. So I always like doing that.
It's it's like a pallet cleanser and I I I get more energy for college football when I'm doing other stuff, too, I think. >> Well, let me let's ask you since, you know, I think Kade Massie, our one of our our primary hosts, if you'd like, is going to be joining us in a little bit.
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And of course, there's no one that cares more about college football than the two of you guys. So, I might hold off on that just for a second.
Um, I'm a huge tennis guy, as you know. Um, you know, we've just left a big part of the season.
We're in a big tournament right
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now in Cincinnati. Obviously, we have the US Open upcoming.
I'm thrilled that I'm going to the US Open again this year. Um, what what are you thinking about when you're thinking about uh tennis right now?
Let's start with the men's side. Um, and then we'll get to the women's side.
Um, it appears that,
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you know, it's going to be S or Alcarez winning the title. I don't know how it's not going to be one of the two of them, but how do you view Let's start with men's professional tennis right now.
>> Yeah, I mean, it's kind of underwhelming, honestly. Like, and I say that, you know, center Alcarez matches are phenomenal.
Even even at Wimbledon
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where, you know, it center took control. I guess he kind of wobbled for a second early on and then he took control.
It kind of seemed like it was going to be pretty straightforward for set win. That was still just the the points themselves are phenomenal when those two are going.
It's just that you know this spring there was an opportunity for the men's
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tour to kind of take well to to to rise up a little bit centers out. Alcarez was injured and wobbly and there was a chance for somebody to kind of seize control make this kind of a big three sort of thing and just failed miserably.
Alexander Zerv had a chance to move to
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number one and got upset at like five straight tournaments. And you know, we've seen Taylor Fritz kind of max himself out.
There's still hope that somebody like a Jack Draper or or a Ben Shelton can have. It sure seems like they have a lot
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of upside and and maybe they can make things interesting. But I wrote it during Wimbledon that like the women's tour right now is more interesting than I think I've ever seen it.
just the number of different uh personalities and and really really high caliber players.
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Minster, we lost our big three and we thought it was going to be wide open and instead it was a big two that uh emerged instead. >> Well, let me ask you before I move away from just the big two.
I want do want to talk about a few other players. Who do you think has the max
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of the two players? Because I've always had the perception first.
You could comment on this too. I always thought on their best day, Djokovic was not the best.
I never thought that. I just didn't.
>> But over 15 years, they're not going to have
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their best day. And he's definitely the max men cuz he was great on every day.
But if Federer was at the top of his game, if Nadal was the top game, look, I saw Stan Roinka blow away Djokovic best Andy Murray blow away Djokovic. Um, I
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never thought he had the highest peak peak peak performance, but over 15 years he's clearly the most accomplished tennis player. How do you feel about You could talk about those three andor how do you feel about center and Alvarez?
>> Yeah, I mean it is a Celings versus Flores thing here. Um, I feel like I
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make that reference far too much on the college football side, and I'm going to when we talk about college football, but um, no, I mean, Djokovic, the his ability to defend and grind and and just wear people down, um, gave him the highest floor we've ever seen. Like, we
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knew his level was going to hit a certain mark. Um, but, you know, Nadal and Feder, especially, you know, Federra didn't have a great record.
I guess their age difference was pretty significant, but um you know, Federer's upside was remarkable. And I do think that what we see with Alcarez and center
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now, like center just playing a neutral point, like if he's just hitting the ball with somebody and just uh kind of messing around half focused, every ball he's going to hit is going to be within about two feet of the baseline. He get he hits everything with just an incredible depth.
He he it's kind of
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like he accidentally hits winners sometimes because it's just so easy. Um and and his natural game is just pretty remarkable.
But Alcarez, what we saw in the French Open final against center where you know center found a certain level and didn't really blow a two set
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lead. Alcarez just came back and took it and especially late.
It felt like you know center in that last tiebreaker didn't really every point that he lost he hit at least one remarkable shot and Alcarez won all those points anyway. So, I think that's that is really what we're dealing with is when Alcarez I think
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he's got about the highest ceiling we've ever seen, but center's floor might be, you know, peak Djokovic at some point as well. Like he just he defends well.
He moves well. He it feels like he has to take about a step and a half to reach one uh end of the court and the other
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and you just can't get anything by him. And um it's really incredible to watch.
I I I didn't really always enjoy the kind of suffer ball matches that Jookovic and Murray played. And it feels like center is kind of a natural sufferball guy, but he's just got such natural offense, too, that he he's still
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really entertaining. >> But let's also remember the, you know, how many match points S had at the French.
S's one point away from holding all four grand slams right now. So, as much as we want to say Djokovic's ceiling is higher, and I happen to I
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mean, uh Alcarazz's ceiling is higher, and I happen to agree with you, >> center is one point away from having the center slam. >> Yeah, it looked like we were kind of in a situation where it was going to be center on hard courts and Alcarez on the natural courts, but then center beat him at Wimbledon pretty comfortably.
And
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yeah, like you said, had had match point, had championship point in Paris as well. So, his he's pretty ridiculous.
And I and I do hope for the sake of the men's game. I I I do think Draper and Shelton in particular um >> are are I don't know if they're the most likely, but I think that'd be Shelton
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especially with his personality. That'd be a really fun addition if he can find another level, but right now he can beat pretty much anybody in the game except Alcarz and Center.
Um so he he's kind of stuck there. I don't know how he makes up that difference.
Yeah, I said this on the show a couple weeks ago after SR had
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won that I think that changed the trajectory of men's tennis for those two. And the reason I say that is had Alcarez won, >> he would have been up six majors to three.
>> Yeah. >> He would have a 9 and4 record >> against at that time he would have had a
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9 and4 record including beating him the last five times had he won that match. So that match really leveled the playing field especially given it was at Wimbledon.
He was the two-time defending champ. I thought that match was crucial in their rivalry going forward.
I don't
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know how you saw it from a let's call it historical perspective. >> Yeah.
I mean, I was pretty comfortable thinking that center was the better overall player, but one of the fun things about this rivalry right now is that the lower ranked t player usually wins. Uh center was the, you know, he kind of broke that streak as well at Wimbledon.
So, I am hoping that they
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kind of just figure out ways to top each other. That's how the big three really became what they did was they had to figure out how to, you know, Nadal was kind of built to beat Federer and then Federer had to fill a couple holes in his game.
Got what got back on top of Nadal late in their rivalry. That was that made it a lot of fun.
So hopefully
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Alcarez can generate whatever he needs to to to make sure that center doesn't pull away. But if somebody's going to pull away right now, it's going to be center.
He's remarkably consistent. >> I agree with that.
What's your you had mentioned the diversity or the diffusion of talent in the women's game. I think
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you and I both agree on any possibly every given point on any given match Sabalena is the most talented player. However, >> you know, I'm not saying only, but she only has three grand slams.
Let's not make it seem like she's got 10. I mean,
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Swantech, I think, has six now. I think four French, a US Open, and a Wimbledon.
And you know, uh, she's clearly the most accomplished player. Um, I think if Sabalena plays her best, she beats Swan Techch, I think.
I think. I'm not I'm
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not sure of that. Well, look, there's Koko Goff, who's a major champion.
Madison Keys just recently won a major championship. There's Robbakana who's won a championship recently.
Bonusa won a championship recently. On the women's side, I think there's some streak going on.
You may remember this, Bill, something like nine or 10 different
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winners like out of some number of tournaments. It's like there's not even been a much of a repeat champion on the women's side.
So, how do you see that? >> Yeah, I think I mean it's funny anytime you start talking about the women's game, you know, it's best of three, so it is a little more random than the men's in the slams.
Um, and and really
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you can see whatever you want to see. If you want to say like there's no standout, I know Muratagloo, uh, Osaka's coach had a ridiculous line about how I just don't see any elite players right now.
Like, are you freaking kidding me? Like, right now, we have at least three Hall of Famers at the top of the sport.
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Like, Zabalinka has certainly blown some matches. She gets, but she's there in every single what is it like?
>> I I didn't I >> It's 10 or 11 straight at least quarter. >> 10 of 11 10 of 11 semis in like 11 straight quarters or something like that.
She's always there.
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Has until she lost to Zabalinka in the French Open, she was on the rough and a doll pace in terms of French Open titles at a certain age. Uh Koko Goff is is has she turned 20?
She's not 22 yet. She has two slams already.
Um and usually two usually two gets you in. So if she quits
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to tomorrow, she might be a Hall of Famer. I I don't think she's going to quit tomorrow.
But if you accept that, okay, if you're in the Hall of Fame, that probably means you are awesome. Then look at all the players who have beaten Zebalinka, Fiontech in golf of late.
Like Fiontech still can't ever beat um Elena Oapinko. And Osta Pinko is
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just a one note hit everything as hard as you can player. Um >> who's got a major >> who has she does um and and it's really fun.
I'm always rooting for her to make a run because she's just so fun to watch. But then, you know, Rabbakana has has landed a lot of shots against
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Zabalinka and SPTECH and Goff struggled against um Navaro last year and you just you start to tie this all together and you start to realize like there are 20 players like you know we have three Hall of Famers at the top and like 20 players in a given tournament could win that
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tournament just based on well based on the randomness of best of three and just the fact >> just won just won and Boo just won the Toronto or what I forget if it was Toronto or Montreal Montreal. Montreal.
>> Montreal. But and she beat like four top 20 players.
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>> Yeah. She was unbelievable in that tournament.
And she basically she crushes everything she touches and and and beat a couple players who took the first step from her. She just continued to land body blow after body blow and they started to break down.
I thought, you know, Osaka certainly looked like
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she was in the clear to finally kind of make her big breakthrough after in this last year and a half since she came back from maternity leave and then Embucko wore her down physically and then emotionally like the the number of players who are really interesting. I just, you know, when when a slam starts,
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I find myself like having having center Alcraz at the end is fun, but I find myself for the first week and a half of a given slam paying far more attention to the women's side than the men's because starting in about the second round, you have some wildly impressive matchups on the on the women's side. I
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just I it's a really really fun tour to follow. Lots of different personalities, shapes, sizes, ages.
You got like three different generations that are all producing top five level play right now. And it's just a lot of fun.
And I I do kind of worry about the men's side. You
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know, obviously lots of great athletes and and fun games on the men's side, too. But you do kind of know who's going to win in the end, especially with slams and and right now.
>> Well, the challenge also is remember this happened with the big three for so long is that you're going to have to
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beat probably Sinner and Alcarez >> to to win a slam. So that's, you know, and with the big three, it was at least two of them.
And that's the challenge. Like, can, you know, can um, you know, can someone beat Alcarz on a given day?
Probably more so than Sinner. Yeah.
But
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then you have Sinner waiting for you in the final. So that's that's the challenge.
>> Yeah. And and that's kind of immediately where you look anytime a draw comes out.
Like if we're going to have any sort of person with any sort of chance like who's not on the side of center Djokovic still and Alcarez like whoever is in
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that other quarter maybe they get lucky. Maybe you know Alcarez gets distracted by clouds for too long and accidentally loses or something.
But um man yeah it's it's great to have that at the end. But I I the the women's tour is is just an absolute blast right now.
I think our
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college football person just entered the uh >> Yeah. Well, before we move on to college football, one one last question about tennis.
Um >> how do you think you just made the comment that some people have said there's no like greats in the game today on the women's side? Yeah.
Um, how do
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you think about because we've talked about this, Shane knows, we've we've talked about this comparing eras and sports as someone that writes for ESPN, but someone I think that has not a historical knowledge of tennis or you could even think about it for college football like, you know, last year's Ohio State team did not play Alabama of
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2009. They didn't play, you know, they just didn't play each other.
How do you think about comparing today's women's players with obviously the person's pining whoever this is pining for the Serena Williams days or you know the Martina Na Talova and Chris
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Everett days. Well, all right.
But you know Swante isn't playing them. So how do you think about comparing different eras in sports?
Yeah, I mean I saw Serena lose to a lot of pretty mediocre players like the the you know she showed up more often than obviously anybody ever has on the on the women's side and
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and when her best was about as was probably as good as we've ever seen. But I mean she was still vulnerable to upsets at times.
So, I don't really I it does feel like the whole, you know, nostalgia thing and everything was
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always better in the past really really rears its head with with tennis and especially women's tennis. Um, but like Lindsay Davenport, Serena Williams, Venus, all these players were incredible and also lost a lot.
Uh, because best of three is really hard. So, um, you know,
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that's I I I think the depth of of talent and athleticism and really kind of diversity on the women's tour is is as high as I can remember it, at least going back to, you know, maybe in the mid 2000s when you had kind of peak
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Serena or near peak Serena and Venus and Davenport and um, uh, Morzmo and, you know, you still had Henn and Kers like maybe that was deeper. Um, but this is at least the best I think we've seen in
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20 years. >> Well, Shane, you wanted to jump in, please.
>> Yeah, Bill, I just kind of you're kind of talking about sort of like, you know, like his rankings and kind of, you know, them over time. Um, Eric, when he asked the question was talk brought up both tennis and also just kind of I think
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we're going to transition to college football. This might be a good kind of way to do that.
Um, can you comment maybe on like how much like if you said something like an ELO ranking or person like like a a sport where it's a a player specific sport like an individual specific sport and how con or or how
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consistent that kind of player ranking or how slowly that evolves over time versus like you know team based rankings and say college football year to year. You could probably use some kind of ELO model for that too but it might be a lot less consistent or maybe more.
I don't know. >> Yeah.
I mean, I I I do lean a lot on the
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tennis abstract numbers. Um, >> yep, >> that's an incredible site.
And that's kind of how at the start of every tournament, especially every slam, I always take a big look at um, you know, the the abstract odds. And I was just looking I had already had it pulled up when you were when you started talking.
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So, like of the in in in his uh in Jeff Sackman's ELO rankings there, top 14 players on the women's tour, five of them have had their best their peak their peak rating in 2025. So, you've got a lot of those, but then you got
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five more who were in 2024. Madison Keys peaked in 2016.
Sitelina peaked in 2018. It it really is kind of a broad range of players who have been really really solid for a long time and then also players who are peaking now.
And I don't know, like it's just it's really fun to
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to just look at the list and see, you know, an 18-year-old Embokco really close in the ratings to a third nearly 31y old Spidilina. Um just a lot of different generations bringing bringing a really high level.
And I'm pretty sure if I looked at the men's tour right now, it'd be kind of a different be a lot of
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people who peaked in 2025, but their peaks aren't very big right now. >> Well, we' spent a good amount of time on tennis.
It's good to get your thoughts, Bill, on uh both the previous tournaments and of course the upcoming US Open. Uh but even more importantly, our friend, colleague, and primary host,
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Kade Massia, joined the face of college football, certainly of Wharton Moneyball, if not broader. So, I'm glad that Kate's here to start our discussion of college football.
>> Thanks, Eric. Apologies, guys.
Uh of all the weeks to have technological issues, my gosh, this is my favorite week of the
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year. Little little college football preview.
Um, we get Godfrey here in the next week or two. So, we're going to split the O' Connelly Godfrey uh partnership as our preview, but we we get Bill C.
I'm always excited to talk to Bill C, but especially this time of
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year. My god.
>> Um, Bill, how how are you? How are you feeling?
How what what are you excited about? >> I'm always curious when it's me that I'm ready for the season because usually, you know, everybody starts ramping like I've been talking about it for months and then everybody starts ramping up in
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media days. I'm like, man, I'm not ready.
I just I need a little more time here >> that you know that's that's humbling to the rest of us because you're writing like conference previews in February. >> Well, I I can't anymore because the roster is all completely flipping in May.
But um you know, no like I I finished my my big conference previews
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which because conferences are so big, those previews are now like 10,000 words per conference. Um, but yeah, finish those in July and then I go through kind of my, you know, I have my my annual pieces like the ifs list and the most important players and all this that are basically designed to get me ready.
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People seem to like them, but really I write them for me just so I can get everything lined up in my head. And I think I'm there.
I between between those pieces and I just finalized my the the last SPS plus rankings to be released I think on Thursday and um laying out a
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couple pieces here coming up. I I took my first dive into the small school universe.
I know when all the big games are for like you know D2 and NIA and whatnot. So I think some point either today or yesterday it clicked.
I'm I'm ready. I'm we're we're good to go here.
>> Okay. Well,
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I'm glad to hear it. Um, but I also this is a different season for you because you've got a big book launching.
I I went to get the book and I was mad because the book's not available until September two, I think. >> I mean, I could send you a PDF just for the record.
Like I think you get special I think you get special priv privileges
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here if you want them. >> I'm ready.
Send it. I'm ready.
>> Want you to xerox it and scan it if you could. >> God Godfrey said the same thing.
Like if you send me a PDF, I'm just going to go to Kinko's and print it. It's God.
Exact.
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Um, well, tell us something about the book. And I've got some questions about the season.
Let's do your book real quick. Tell what is the book?
What's the gist of the book? Why the book now?
And I I won't even oo and over the fact that you wrote this book while you do everything else you do. I don't know how you write all you do, but tell us about
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the book. September 2 available.
What's it What's it called? >> Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football.
Now, uh, I love the title. Also, it's a whole bunch of me going, I don't know.
Um, so I don't know how definitive it really is, but um, you know, that's just the
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odds brain in me. I can never actually say anything with certainty.
Um, no, it's basically how do we get here? Where are we going?
But, you know, it's it's half history book, half what ended up being like a manifesto of where I think she things should go or what the actual worry signs are. Because in college
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football especially with every sport really, but in college football especially, anything we don't like, any change we don't like, we think it's going to kill college football. But you can't find a single thing right now that suggests that there's any like ratings are great, attendance is good.
Like it seems like things are pretty healthy,
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but you know the >> the inequality behind the scenes has me very concerned at the moment because I think that's only going to get worse. Um, and I just wanted to kind of separate things out like so much has changed so quickly that we just kind of
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think of it as a giant monolith of of change. But, you know, I can be I can tell you that, you know, some of the conference realignment things are bad, but some of the pay players thing is are very good.
And some of the, you know, the the play arguing about like the
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expansion of the playoff is good, but this is bad, but this is good. and and I just kind of wanted this, you know, again, I write for myself basically.
I wanted to clear my own head and and I think it uh it worked pretty well. >> Okay.
You you some people don't know this about you, but you you really really are a college football historian
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in addition to being an analyst and a writer. Often when we're trying to make sense of current events, it helps to have that long view, that historical view.
>> Often we think that people are forgetting something about the past that still informs today. But it does feel like maybe college football is
23:22
substantively different now. Maybe the past is less relevant now.
So my question to you as the historian is like, you know, can you play that history card now and say, "Well, this is how it used to be. Don't don't overreact.
We've seen this stuff before. You know, it's no big deal." Or or are you like, "No, no, no.
This is so categorically different that it's a
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break from the past." >> Well, I mean, the biggest difference is after we we were arguing about, you know, a playoff for 50 years. We were arguing about this breakaway like the biggest schools getting what they wanted and breaking away for 50 years.
We've been arguing about all these things forever. But yeah, in the 2020s these
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things actually happened. So that that alone makes it different.
No question about that. Um I did think, you know, there's always things to learn from history about, you know, how loyalty has never been a thing.
Like Washington leaving Washington State isn't really a surprise because they tried to in the 50s uh and just didn't succeed. Uh but
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now that geography is officially not a thing anymore, they were able to actually finally uh break apart. But you know, yeah, I I I think there's certainly what I also tried to do was was learn from other sports.
Um you know, how did NASCAR fall from grace? What are some of the lessons we can
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learn there? because I think that one I know a lot of people have made that great comparison, but I do think it's a pretty legit one when it comes to taking your base fans for granted in the in the search for casual fans and if there's any sort of crisis and suddenly the casuals go away, maybe you'll find out
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the hardcores did too. You know, things like that that you know, just kind of warning signs to look out for.
Um, I'm always a very competitive, balanced driven person. I like parody or more than I get.
Uh, which is crazy that I'm a college football person. uh in general, but you know, I I I took a you
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know, I I I talked to somebody who who talks a lot about Australian rules, who writes about Australian rules football because Australia does parody. Australia is obsessed with parody.
Uh so just kind of I I tried to take from other sports and and learn what we could learn um to to you know, see what I found. That's
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that's a really intriguing bill just uh just because uh I think you know parody is something that I think we agree all is a notion we want for every sport but I feel like it's a very hard thing to compare kind of across sports you know you know what what what parody in
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American football would mean compared to parody in hockey or baseball or or you know again at the individual player level tennis we were talking about earlier. I don't know if you can kind of talk about like how hard it is to bridge sports like like how how how much can you learn from one sport struggle with
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par or or or you know I guess implementation or attempts at par versus you know for for another sport. >> Yeah.
In Australia this isn't necessarily Australian rules football but um with rugby and some of the lower level Aussie rules football they they basically they don't have a salary cap. They have a player player rating system,
26:04
I think is what it's called, or player point system where basically like the quality of the player costs more. Like if you want a a former Australian rules a highlevel pro for your like midlevel like semi-pro Australian rules football team, he's going to cost a lot of
26:20
points. You can pay him whatever you want, but you're not going to be able to to you get that many other good players because they they they're obsessed with roster balance.
And so it was just kind of a fun exercise. I mean, I think we know in the short term where things are headed and they're not play, you know, even though we have recruiting rankings
26:35
and we could try to assign a a you know, you can only assign so many fivestar guys limit. If we wanted to do that, I'm I'm good with it.
I doubt it happens. But at some point, you know, out when the when the SEC and Big 10 are kind of done with their blood lust here in the short term, we might find that there are
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some problems emerging and we need to have some other ideas. So, that was kind of the goal here.
Bill, since we're obviously a statistics show as well, I thought I'd I'll throw in some statistics jargon, but to ask you a substantive college football question. Um, if you look at the last 15, 20 years, it appears that there's been,
27:07
I'll call it, state dependence or runs by conference in the national title. Like we looked at well, the SEC will never be beat.
LSU, Bama, Georgia, Georgia. Well, the last two have been won by Michigan and Ohio State.
>> Yeah. So, do you see a possib first of
27:23
all, do you believe in conference level strength and state dependence where conferences kind of go on runs or not really? And B, if the answer to the first one is yes, do you think we're in a Big 10 run right now and we might see
27:40
that for the next couple years? >> No, I really don't.
I mean, I think I what I told SEC people when SEC teams will win a lot of titles is the same thing I'm telling Big 10 people now. like the best conference is the best conference.
We have power ratings. We have a lot of ways to evaluate who has the best conference, but who won the
27:56
last game of the season probably isn't the best way to do that. Uh, you know, Alabama won a lot of those national titles.
That didn't have anything to do with Vanderbilt. Like the SEC, they can they can claim that they, you know, they're part of the best conference or whatever because Alabama won all those titles.
That's not really a great a
28:13
great thing. But I do think, you know, right now, like in on a year-to-year basis, the SEC grades out comfortably the best on average, just in terms of average SP plus rating or whatever.
Um, but, you know, heading into this season, especially, that doesn't, you know, the
28:29
SEC might be the best overall because it doesn't have as many terrible teams. That doesn't really mean that Ohio State and Penn State don't have a really good chance of winning the national title this year.
It just means they're going to have a lot of team light heavyweight and heavyweight teams with a decent chance. Well, also to your point, Bill, just to follow up one last thing, the new college football playoff system will
28:46
also help that because now one loss by an Ohio State or Penn State, well, you're still in the playoffs. You you know the they'll still have an opportunity to win it, >> right?
And and also, you know, it it's a genuine tournament. The 14 playoff was great.
It was an improvement in my eyes,
29:02
but it still wasn't really it was one extra game. It wasn't like a complete change.
Now, we have a tournament at the end of the season. And tournaments have a lot of randomness that you can't say if you know the eight seed makes a run at some point.
Um, you know, whoever that might be. Let's say LSU makes a run
29:18
and and and wins the title kind of unexpectedly. Well, actually Ohio State, what were they?
They were pretty close to the eight seed last year. They were the eight seed last year.
Y um even though they clearly weren't the eighth best team, but yeah, you have a team that loses three games but sneaks in, makes a run, that doesn't mean their conference was best. It just means they
29:33
got hot at the right time. out.
>> All right, guys. Let's let's continue down this line and talk about this season and and we got a little bit of a late start.
So, why don't we do do this? >> I don't know if I'm capable of short answers, but let's go.
Let's try. >> And um well, we're going to challenge you, Bill.
I don't know if my colleagues are
29:50
capable of short kibbitzing, but we're going to ask them to be brief kibitzers as well. Um and this is going to give us a chance to talk about a lot of teams and conferences, but I've got eight I've got eight, just so you know, eight lightning round questions for you.
And let's let's try to keep it concise, but if we need to dive, we can dive. Number
30:06
one, yesterday AP poll was released. Texas is number one.
First time in the history of the poll, which is shocking to most people. 75 years, Texas never been number one before.
Number two is PSU, but Penn State only like five votes behind or not even vote full votes. I mean, it was really neck and neck.
If
30:22
you had to bet on one of those two teams, winning the national championship, Texas or Penn State, >> I think Penn State just because a they have an easier schedule and they're more likely to get there and b they have more known quantities. Texas like if if Arch Manning is the best player in the country, Texas is number one.
That that's fine. Like I don't really dispute
30:37
that. But it kind of takes an assumption that Texas is the that that Arch is the best player in the country.
If Texas is going to be number one, they have two brand new lines. They have a receiving core I don't really trust.
I'm not sure if Texas's coaches do either. Like they got a lot of questions.
And if Arch is anything less than amazing, that that's
30:54
there there are some issues there. This this is not a short answer obviously.
Um but just there is a point that I've I've been making a lot that I really find interesting. We have two kind of known birds in hand here with Penn State and Clemson and then we have a whole bunch of teams that probably have more upside
31:10
and a whole bunch of unknowns and that makes it a really really interesting year to talk about. >> Well, interesting you bring that up because another pairing I want to give you national championship chances.
Who do you got? Clemson or Alabama?
>> Alabama. I just don't I don't trust
31:26
Clemson as a top five team. We haven't This has been my point all all off season.
Like they've a their last four years they've averaged like an 18.5 ranking in SP plus. Like they have the most returning production in the country.
This is going to be their best team in five years. I just don't trust
31:42
that that's a top five team. It might only be like a top 10 team.
>> Wow. Wow.
Okay. And and Alabama, you clearly think there's some upside there.
That's kind of a sneaky strong team this year, right? >> Yeah.
Great defense last year even uh aside from basically like 45 minutes
31:58
against Georgia and Vanderbilt and like the the quarterback marriage just wasn't a good one. Never was.
Defense has figured it out late last season. I don't know if Tai if Tai Simpson is good, not even like Heisman, just good.
That's a really really really good football team. >> But Bill, let me just ask you quickly
32:13
about just to follow up Kate's question. What what do you what concerns you about Clemson that you know they're I'm just look staring at it right now.
They're number four in the AP. They're number six in the Clemson in the coaches poll.
And you've just commented that you're not sure they're even really top 10.
32:29
What do you see that might not be included in these votes or these models, etc.? >> Well, recent history more than anything, they've been, you know, eight, they haven't been a top 15 team in S+ since 2020.
Um, so they're projected to improve a lot because of the returning
32:44
production, but that just that only gets you so high. They haven't had an elite offense in years.
They haven't had an elite defense in years. And we're just kind of to project or to to vote for them in the top five means you just kind of assume all these things are going to come together at once.
And that's that can happen. And and again, like I'm not
33:00
rooting against it by any means. I think it'd be pretty interesting if they did rise back.
I I just don't I don't trust it. I don't I don't see it yet.
>> All right. So, I've got eight of these lightning round questions.
The first four are these head-to-head matchups. Who's best for the national championship?
We're on number three. And now I'm going to go to two tried andrue.
33:18
No question they're capable. Who do you have between Ohio State and Georgia?
Ohio State. >> Who's more likely to win the national championship?
Ohio State. All right.
Why is that? >> Well, they have the two best players in college football.
That's a good place to
33:34
start. Um there's a lot of uncertainty there.
Like two new coordinators, new a very young quarterback. Like I'm I don't You know, I don't think they're they're going to be number one in SP plus spoiler, but I don't love that.
I don't think they're far and away number one by any means, but they just have the most
33:49
upside. Georgia's really funny this year.
I think they always have, speaking of ceilings and floors, they always have a ridiculously high floor. They only lose to awesome teams.
And also, what are they elite at this year? We don't know that they're elite at anything this year.
Their quarterbacks knew their skill core wasn't good enough last year.
34:05
Their offensive line wasn't good enough. the defensive line came and went and then lost everybody.
Um, I know people love Kristen Miller, defensive tackle. Like, there's obviously upside there.
We just haven't seen any of it. Like, we don't know that they're going to be elite in anything.
So, give me the team that I know has at least a couple of
34:20
really, really, really good, good pieces. >> Okay.
Two I wanted to hear you talk about, so I'll just put them against each other. Oregon and Notre Dame.
Oregon and Notre Dame. >> I guess Notre Dame.
Oregon lost a lot. I didn't realize until I wrote the Big 10 preview just how much Oregon lost from last season.
That offense is brand new.
34:37
Um, Dante Moore is the likely quarterback and his upside. We don't, all we know is he kind of bombed at UCLA two years ago as a true freshman, which happens, but I went back and read his scouting reports from when he was recruiting.
He was a fivestar recruit and all the all the scouting reports
34:53
were basically like doesn't make mistakes, makes the the right decisions. It doesn't really say anything about his physical upside.
And I mean, I guess if you're succeeding Dylan Gabriel, then maybe that's that's right. You know, Gabriel didn't have a lot of physical upside, but just was really good quarterback.
So, maybe that works out.
35:10
Okay. But I I had a lot more questions about Oregon than I realized.
Um, and Notre Dame, obviously, they have a new quarterback, too. So, some of these new quarterbacks are kind of bomb or or not, you know, at least not be superstars, but I like a lot of what Notre Dame returns otherwise.
>> Okay, let's go to the final four
35:26
lightning round questions. Away from the head-to-heads.
Will Texas Tech make the Big 12 title game? >> Well, I'm going to say no just because uh it's like 16 teams and they all have exactly the same chance in that stupid conference.
It's my favorite conference by far because just flip the standings
35:41
from year to year. They are going to be good though.
Uh they the biggest issue with them is, you know, I think they're projected to improve as much as just about anybody in SP plus, but they started in the 40s uh because they were super lucky last season. They should have probably won as many games they didn't.
They didn't win a ton of games.
35:57
So, um, they got a lot to approve and I don't really trust there are a lot of good quarterbacks in that conference and Baron Morton. I don't trust him as much as I trust some others.
So, I'm going to I was going to say no to anybody you said in the Big 12, but I I'm definitely going to say no to Texas Tech.
36:12
>> Okay. So, you're a little short.
They acquired more talent than anybody and they they paid as much as we've seen anybody pay. What's your position in general on whether you can build teams that way?
Do do it's like are to what extent is the sum the whole greater than
36:27
the sum of the parts or less than the sum of the parts? Is it different from the sum of the parts?
>> Well, I tend to root for usurpers. So, I'm not you know, even though I don't like the impact money plays in a lot of ways, it's there's a lot of old money in college football that has driven decisions and uh for a very long time.
So, anybody trying to upend that, I'm
36:43
not going to really complain. I do think it'll be I think it would be very interesting to see how certain powerful entities responded if Texas Tech really did basically buy a bunch of five stars and suddenly have an elite team and um you know beat a couple of of blue blood
36:59
schools. I think that'd be probably in the end pretty good for the sport, but I don't it'd be interesting.
I I don't think it'll happen, but it'd be interesting. >> Right.
Bill, maybe to tie our first conversation with you about tennis to this. Is the current college football season to you more like men's tennis or
37:14
women's tennis? Do we have basically two teams that can win it or do you see 10 to 12 teams?
Here's the thing. I we I'll ask you in a different way, but the same question.
Bill Connley gets to pick X teams. I get the rest of the teams and you're going to make it a fair bet.
How
37:31
many teams is Bill Connley picking? >> Well, that's historically you're looking at like three or four.
Um, you know, we had the Alabama run, we had the Georgia run, uh, right after the Alabama run, like didn't take much. And I think there it's unquestionable that at the top of the sport right now, the talent's been a
37:47
little more spread out. Like, I see probably at least I think the top six or seven are in a tier by themselves, not six or seven.
That's already six or seven that I can't really decide between. And all of them have pretty big question marks either in terms of ceiling or floor.
Like I realized, you
38:03
know, somebody asked me, you know, is Texas really number one? Are they overrated?
And I realized I was going to say whoever would was number one was overrated because it feels like we have a bunch of threes and fours. And that's great.
I think that's, you know, that makes for a really really fun title race. I when I talk about competitive balance that I'm worried about, it's the
38:19
it's the power conferences are really the two conferences trying to distance themselves from everybody else. But there's no question that, you know, if we have a 12 team tournament at the end of this, like right now, I I would say I would need at least like six to feel comfortable that I have the winner.
>> Let me ask you a related question to
38:34
that. Do you think there's enough data >> that when we have you on at the end of the season, so let's say the 12 team bracket is now set?
>> Yeah. >> And I say to you, Bill, >> how many teams can win this?
Do you think the data from the regular season will differentiate them enough because
38:50
of the number of really high leverage games each team plays? Or are we going to say, Bill's going to say, didn't I I tell you guys on August the 12th that there's still a half a dozen teams that can really win this thing?
>> Well, I think wherever we draw that line, six teams, seven, eight teams, whatever, half of them are going to turn
39:05
out to have awesome quarterbacks. So, I do think at the end of the season, we'll know we'll know which ones are awesome and that'll make uh the decision a little bit easier.
That's what has made talking about this uh season pretty fun is that so many of them have new quarterbacks and they're inevitably high
39:20
upside guys. But number one, most of them run around too much and get hit a lot and some of them aren't that's not going to work out very well.
So yeah, by the end of the year we're going to know who the elite quarterbacks are and that'll make the decision a little easier, I think. >> But I do think that the short answer to Eric's question is that this is the most
39:36
women's tennisish college football seasons we've had in a long time. in a real long time.
And well, I think it's intriguing to think about your second question to wonder to what extent will it still feel that way at the end of the year, but I bet it does. My money says that it will.
Okay, three final
39:52
questions. First two are coaches.
Who has a better chance of getting their program back to the glory days, Lincoln Riley or Brent Venable? Um, well, neither is probably the right answer, but uh I I I guess venables if only because
40:08
he he did get the defense back on track last year and this whole gambit where you just kind of transplant uh you know, in this case bringing in Washington State's offensive coordinator and quarterback, assuming nothing becomes of this gambling thing that just popped up about John Matier, which we'll see that's in the early stages. Um, you
40:25
know, maybe you it wouldn't be hard to envision that offense clicking and then suddenly having a top 10 or 15 team again. Lick Riley is really funny.
I in my Big 10 preview I wrote like if you just kind of look at what he did, he registered a ton of guys last year. He didn't make a panic buy with a quarterback in the portal this year and
40:42
and he's signing a great recruiting class for next year or you know not signing but he has a bunch of really good commitments. kind of feels like he's building for 2026.
I don't know if the marriage there is going to be healthy enough in 2026 for him to still, you know, it wouldn't surprise me
40:59
if he kind of left be via kind of mutual consent after this year if it doesn't if it's another seven and six years. So, yeah, I I right now I trust Venibles more, but I don't really trust either one.
>> All right, reasonable second coaching
41:14
question. Seventh out of the eight lightning round questions.
Will Brian Kelly ever win a national championship at LSU? >> Uh, I mean, sure, possibly, but probably not.
No. Um, it really, every year though, we talk, it's so easy to talk yourself into LSU because inevitably they had a good offense last year and
41:30
this year they're going to, you know, Nusmeer's a a solid a very solid quarterback. They're going to have good receivers and all that.
Uh, and the defense always has athletes. He, you know, he has two dynamic linebackers, both coming off big injuries, so we'll see.
And then he went out and got like every defensive end of the portal. So,
41:47
um, it could click it. You know, it's they're not that far away, but at this point, it's kind of up to him to prove it.
He's he's been given the benefit of the doubt a lot. I think >> I'm going to I'm going to make it a little bit harder and ask what probability because he'll run out of time at some point.
LSU is not known for
42:02
patience with their head coaches. And as Feldman is always saying, the last three coaches there won national championships.
So, what probability? >> Not great because even if they peak, you still have to deal with Ohio State.
you still have to deal with uh well deal with you have to beat like three out of
42:17
Ohio State, a couple whichever elite SEC teams and just a whole bunch like you're going to have to win three really hard games at the end of the year and I just don't think we're going to say we'll say 12%. >> Okay.
Okay. Okay.
So, I think I know how
42:35
you're gonna answer this last question because you've been giving this statistically wise answer to all these questions. You're forced to bet against the line on Texas Ohio State week one.
The line is two and a half. Ohio State by two and a half.
>> I'm fascinated by this game. I I I'm I can't get a read on either team.
Um but
42:53
I I think I think SP Plus is going to say what uh Ohio State by like five or so. And I think they have like a two or three point advantage in that home field as well.
Um, I guess I lean in that direction, but I'm I'm not I'm not
43:09
betting on this game. Like I I really I love that Ohio State and Texas are playing and I love that Clemson and LSU are playing in first week because those are four teams that I just need to see before I I trust any impression I have.
>> Do you think there is a learnable pattern in data, Bill, from I don't even
43:24
know if this is true. If Ryan Day or Steve Sarkeesian is like, let's imagine I told you their records over the last 15 years.
Is one of them a slow starting team? like do you believe in non-stationerity during the season and is one of them predictable in some way that might move the odds a little bit?
43:41
>> Yeah, it's it's so hard with you know because the seasons are short and context is heavy and like Ohio State was terrible at the end of 2023 but part of that was because the stakes you know they they missed the playoff and then their quarterback didn't play against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl and blah blah blah. Like it's really hard to
44:00
Brian Kelly always slow started at LSU. Is that really is there a cause to that or is that just complete randomness because he did it like three times?
I I So I never I never get very far. There might be a signal somewhere in there, but I've never found it.
I've never >> Of those four teams you named, the least
44:16
proven quarterback is Ohio State. And that's a that's a red shirt freshman.
And you'd expect I mean Arch is just a red shirt sophomore, right? But >> Nus Byer and Kubnik, they're not going to change that much over the course of the season.
Manning will change some. And then Julian Sam probably going to
44:31
change a fair bit over the course of the season. Longhorns are happy to catch Ohio State week one for exactly that.
>> Yeah. And San was almost as highly touted as Arch.
Um really really highly touted quarterback, but yeah, we just haven't seen anything from him. And Arch, we got this Well, first of all,
44:47
Arch came out and and had like the best uh small sample performance of all time against UTSA last year with like two long touchdown passes and a long touchdown run and was unbelievable. and then got baited into mistakes by Louisiana Monroe the next week.
So, you know, I it's I get that people are kind
45:06
of assuming that he's gonna carry them and be number one. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if it happened, but he bars really high.
I I went back and looked. I'm going to either write about this or just stick it in my week one preview, but the only person who's ever been a betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy with a smaller resume than Arch
45:23
Manning was Tua after he threw the touchdown pass to win the national title the year before. Um, and that's it.
Like that's the only he has 900 career passing yards and he's the Heisman favorite. It's it's pretty wild and it's kind of unfounded territory here.
>> Well, it's going to be fun. We'll learn a lot soon.
All right. Give us something
45:39
that you think the consensus that's it for the lightning round. not not so lightning round.
What is one thing you think consensus is getting wrong about college football in 2025 >> this season this season? Where's Where are you contrarian, Bill?
>> Well, I mean I'm obviously a Clemson
45:56
contrarian. Um like I do think that's something and I I Clemson fans have been on me all off seasonason about it.
Like I don't I I think you guys are the ACC favorite. I think you're going to be good.
I just don't understand how and and it was weird too. We used to have these ball bumps where like Gino Smith
46:11
would throw for 500 yards in the in the Orange Bowl and then they'd be like a top five team the next year because of it. Um Kate Clubick in like they were a two touchdown underdog against Texas in the in the college football playoff last year.
They lost by two touchdowns, but
46:27
he completed like three long passes in the process. They're like, "Oh, that's it.
That's it. That's they're going to have a lead offense again next year." And they might.
>> But Clemson doesn't It's such a conservative offense. I need to see him if he throws downfield twice in the first quarter against LSU.
I I'm much
46:45
closer to being in. I need to see that that Davos is actually going to let him >> wing the ball around like he had to because they were trailing against Texas as well.
So, they had to throw the ball downfield. >> Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah.
Okay. But I got to ask you one question.
Clubnick or Nesus? If you had to pick
47:02
take one, who would you want as your QV? >> I'm going clubnick.
I I I didn't see it. I didn't think of it either.
>> He might be the better quarterback. I like LSU's offensive structure more like that that will produce big plays and I don't trust the Clemson.
Well, but I guess I guess club >> of course. Yeah.
Yeah.
47:19
>> All right. Listen, we got to let you go.
That's a long run with you and um we'll talk with you later in the season, but thanks for the time, Bill. Um wish you the best getting the season off.
You said at the top of the show that you only in the last day or two felt ready for it, so congrats on that and enjoy
47:34
the last two and a half weeks as we run into this thing. and we'll talk with you down the road.
Bill Connley, creator of SP Plus, writer at ESPN, uh originally with the Football Outsiders, and author of a new book. He's got other books, and they're worthy, but there's a brand new one
47:49
coming out, Forward Progress. Pre-order now.
Welcome back to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to the second half of this week's show.
The first half was more than a half, so the second half's going to be a little bit less of one, but it's uh our college football preview show of sorts with some tennis thrown in for uh
48:08
for good measure. And um we've got other sports to talk about now.
We they are going on. It's not all eclipsed by football.
And we'll have a chance to talk more about football over the next couple of weeks. We've got I think Steven Godfrey coming in.
Do more college football next week. We'll do a pro football preview with Brian Burke in
48:24
a couple of weeks. So, it's on our mind and now it's um in increasingly on our screens.
We'll come back to it. In the meantime, gentlemen, uh we got some baseball.
Before we get baseball, golf is winding up their season. They're trying to figure out how to make it more
48:39
dramatic. They've got three tournaments here at the end.
They whittle the field from se top 75 play the first tournament, then the top 50, then finally the top 30. And we had a dramatic fun Justin Rose victory in the first of these three tournaments.
What? How old?
43 43 years old.
48:56
>> I think he's 45. I know he's 44 or 45.
>> All right. >> And yeah, I mean, >> gota gota pull for that guy always.
>> Yeah. I mean, he's been playing extremely well lately and um you know, I think that's the nice thing about golf.
Will Justin Rose compete and be at the
49:12
top every week? No.
But guys can get locked in at golf for short periods of time and he looks incredibly fit. He's, you know, it's usually the putter that lets you down at that age.
the guy's putting well and um you know this is a big tournament to win. You know there's
49:29
well you guys may remember the the year that Tiger won the last tournament won the FedEx playoffs actually Justin Rose won the overall playoffs but Tiger won the last event of the season which was the top 30
49:45
championship that Kade talks about. So Justin Rose first of all you know he's going to play well at the RDER Cup.
you know that for a fact. So, he's clearly geared up for the end of the season.
I thought it was an exciting win. I I thought the other thing that was interesting is, you know, all of a
50:00
sudden this guy that won the US Open, who I had never really heard of, was it JJ Spawn or whatever, >> he was the one that he beat in the playoff, like this guy's coming in top five, top 10, like at every tournament right now. And this backs to what Kate has said, the guy's been locked in for
50:15
like 10 weeks now. And this can make a career.
I'm not saying he's in the Hall of Fame yet, but the guy's on tour now for the next 10 years. And you know, he's probably won, I don't know, 8 to10 million dollars in the last 10 weeks.
And uh it's just and he's now on the
50:32
he's clinched the Ryder Cup spot. If I had told you 10 weeks ago, JJ Spawn is on the US RDER Cup team.
You're like, who? >> Yeah, >> he's on the Ryder Cup team.
>> Well, let's hope his his regime shift that he's been riding for the last couple of months will continue. And the other thing to mention also just quickly
50:48
again, >> you know, Tommy Fleetwood second again, and we talked about this a couple weeks ago. I think this is now I don't know if it's nine or 10 second place finishes.
This guy's never won on the US tour. And we're getting to a
51:05
point where, you know, there is some, you have to call it a carryover effect or something that even if he's in that final group, his odds are much worse than one over n where n is the number of players. It just has to be psychological
51:21
at this point. It has to be.
>> It would it would be realistic. It'd be understandable if it is even.
By the way, u our friend Rufus Peabody who does a lot of golf an analytics and betting finds that there is a measurable um uh pressure effect that players are
51:39
play worse in the league and in general like the very best of them don't but like that that's the exception. Everybody else generally plays worse when they're in the lead.
Um which is an interesting observation. >> And also just one last golf thing um our boy Texas Mr.
Texas. Scotty Sheffller
51:56
has not been worse than eighth place in 12 straight tournaments. >> I mean, we talk about volatility.
>> We talk about volatility in golf and when you see a guy who seems immune to it is and immune to it at the top, you know, it's high mean and low volatility, it's just really remarkable. Okay, we've
52:12
only got a few minutes and let me put it to you this way. I've been away from the show for a couple weeks.
I've been away from civilization for a couple of weeks. I may not have paid as much attention to baseball as I should.
If I need to know just a few things about what's going on in baseball right now, what do you think those few things are? >> Well, I've got one kind of interesting
52:28
observation. I mean, one thing about this season, offense is up.
Offense is up, I think, or or at least I have one anecdotal evidence that the offense is up. We have not yet had no hitter this year.
>> And usually there's like four or we've been averaging four or five of those a
52:43
season >> for the last few years. So like there's no Yeah, basically offense is up is one thing you can kind of take in which you know is exciting and we can you know obviously talk about what's kind of driving driving that particular uh uh thing but uh and the other kind of part
53:00
of that is that we talked a few weeks ago about the fact that there was five players on pace for over 50 home runs this year. They're still all five of them on pace for over 50 home runs.
>> They're still on pace still on pace even though of injuries. I guess he must be just at 50.
53:15
>> Yes, Judge is still on p. I mean Jud Judge Judge is falling off.
He's actually I think the one with the the best p the shortest pace now. Actually Suarez is but like Yeah.
I mean actually Judge and Sorber are still on pace for the same number of home runs this year even with Judge's recent entries.
53:31
>> And Raleigh is up to 45 or something. >> 45 at least.
As of I didn't see last night but as of the night before he was at 45. Okay.
>> Yeah. When I calculated out a couple days ago he was on pace for like 62 home runs.
>> Oh my goodness. Go rally.
Here we go. Okay.
Give me What else do I need to know? What else do I need to know?
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>> To me, uh, you know, the team that has surprised me the most is the Brewers. I mean, I put it in the rundown.
They're the only team in baseball, only team above 600. And it's not close.
Their record is 74 and 44.
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And their preeason was 83 and a half. >> Their expectation preseason.
>> Expectation for the preseason. So I mean that they're probably not it's not guaranteed they're targeting a hundred easy that's way above the expectation.
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>> Okay. So so hold on give me give me let's take it down a level like Pythagorean let's go Bill James.
What would their are they outperforming or they outwinning their run performance? How does do we know anything about that?
>> I I hadn't looked at that. I had saw that the Yankees are the team I did
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compute the Yankees are the team who has the worst performance on Pythagorean. In other words, they have the number one run differential, for example, in the American League and the sixth best record.
>> But going back to the Brewers, I think I mean I I'm it is surprising probably that they're the best team in baseball.
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It is not that surprising that they're a good team. I mean I I think I was watching a Brewers game the other night and they mentioned that Christian Yelch, who's been played there for like eight years now, they've gone to the playoffs seven out of the eight years.
He's been there. >> That's impressive.
>> That's pretty amazing for like any
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baseball team. I mean, other than maybe some of the ones that are kind of in there, you know, usually.
Uh that's that's amazing for any kind of mid payroll, like kind of mid-market baseball team, I think. And so I think it really to the extent that like there's something systematic going on in
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Milwaukee uh with their especially on the pitching side. They seem to be able to produce out of their development system both relief and starters like just ace after ace like you know like elite closer after elite closer.
So and they've done it you know over over many
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kind of runs now. So, I I I think you know, whoever's in charge of pitching there, um hopefully makes >> something right.
Shane, a couple weeks ago or a few weeks ago now, we were talking about the Brewers, and you were like, "Yeah, yeah, I'm not going to buy any Central Division team in either league until I see something else." Is
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it different for you now? Are they Are they >> No.
Well, no. I I mean, that's one thing.
I mean, seven out of seven out of the eight years that you seven out of last eight years they've made the playoffs, have they have you heard of them in the World Series? Yeah.
No. >> By the way, Kate, I just
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>> Have you heard of them even the Did they make the conference? I I mean, they're kind of seven out of the eight.
They're always in the playoffs, but they've been kind of pretty consistently one and done. >> I'm here to deliver stats for you live, Kade.
By the way, the Brewers Pagarian win percentage >> 0.629. Their actual win percentage 0.627.
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>> Look at that. Look at that.
So, it's not that they're outperforming their run right there. They're they're matching.
>> That's a mark of a truly elite team that they hit their Pythagorean. average.
Right on. No, I mean that it is interesting because you know it's kind of like you know I think on paper like
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you know just in terms of player like like probably the preseason rankings that do the kind of sum of the war the player you know that try and build up teams from their component parks probably constantly underestimate the Brewers because there seems to be like you know all these like new guys always coming out of the system to fill in the losses. They I mean
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>> let me the other thing that caught my say one other thing Kate about baseball. The Dodgers right now have the fourth best record in the National League, yet they're by far still the betting favorite for the National League to go to the World Series.
So, that to me is
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just interesting. And, you know, you've always talked about how long how much weight do we put on prior and how much when do we start, you know, when do prior start to have less and less weight?
It has to be prior related because there's nothing right now. Right now, there's still 40 games to go roughly.
There's nothing right now that
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suggests that they're better than the Brewers or the Phillies or the Cubs or even possibly the Padres's in their own division that would suggest that they're they should be plus 250 and these other teams are plus a thousand. It just there's nothing in the data right now.
>> I think that's just name familiarity at
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this early part of the proceedings with betting. I don't know how much that's that's a thing, but like you know probably the Yankees like are still like you know a higher bet than they otherwise would be >> for sure.
Um, >> so one one it is interesting and and I mean the expectations were so high
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coming in and so I I guess that to some extent could make sense, but I'd be curious to push into that deeper to know what the implied weight is and whether there's any rationality to that. >> Um, okay, last question on baseball.
Y'all noted somewhere that in the AL it's uh Guardians, Yankees, and Red Sox
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all within a game or two of each other for two of the three final. So, if you had to pick, which team of those three would not make the two wild card spots, who do you least believe among those three?
Yankees, Guardians, and Red Sox?
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Of course, I'm talking to a Yankee and a Red Sox fan, and I'll take the Guardians. I'm always pulling for the Guardians.
So, who who's going to be disappointed here at the end of the year? >> I don't think the I think the Yankees have not played their best baseball in the last 50 games.
I think they'll get their act together enough to make one of
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the wild card spots. I don't know enough about Boston or or the Guardians.
If I had to say which one would be out, I'd say Boston. >> Yeah.
I mean, I I I kind of I I I unfortunately I have to agree with my friend and colleague Eric on this one. I I think the Yankees are the ones most
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likely to kind of make a run just because they've been playing so horribly to get into that like wild card business. They were like six, seven games up on the division not that long ago.
So, they're they're kind of, I guess, due for a little bit of a regression back up to their standard.
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Um, and that's bad news for the Reds. That's bad news for some like another division team that has to play them a lot still to come.
Okay. >> And you know, so I think, you know, it's going to be very hard for two out of those three >> teams to to come out this.
It it happened last year that two two Central
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teams both made wild ball cards. But >> yeah, but talk about a good parsimmonious answer.
So you got to take one out of the one division and take the team that's not playing the other two. That's very very good.
Shame. Okay guys, why don't we wrap it there, call it a week.
We'll come back and do this again next time. For the whole team here, Eric
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Bradlo, my colleague, collaborator, longtime co-host. Shane Jensen, same thing.
Audi Wider and Absentia for Dion Simpkins, the boss man. D Patel running this show for the hire.
She's a big executive running things for behind the scenes. D, we depend on D and Dion.
Many
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thanks to those guys. Many thanks to y'all for listening.
Come back and join us next time. Between now and then, enjoy your sports.
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