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Now let's discuss the high probability entries that you can take in regards to the market maker model.
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So again we're going to be concentrating on the market maker cell model. Now the first step is to always identify where price is within the higher time frame market maker model.
Are we in a higher time frame market make a buy model or
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are we in a higher time frame market make a sell model? Now most of your time when you're studying should be spent on understanding your higher time frame narrative.
Right? I'm not going to sugarcoat it.
That part is not easy. It takes time and experience.
And
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essentially this is why I run a mentorship program so I can show you how the market narrative is broken down. Now it's not essential to join my mentorship program.
I'm not trying to plug that here. But my point is once you understand the higher time frame draw and you can understand and break down
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market narrative, finding the market maker models inside of price action is much much easier to do. Once you have established whether you are in a market maker buy model or a market maker sell model on the higher time frame, you then need to establish what side of the
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market maker model you are on. Are you on the buy side of the curve?
And has the buy side objective not yet been complete? And therefore, do we have room to travel higher?
Again, understanding market narrative here is incredibly important. If we find that we are in a
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buy program for market maker sell model, what stage of accumulation are we in? Are we in the first stage, second stage, or even third stage relative to the dealing range?
Have you identified a terminus in price where we expect the
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buy side delivery to complete at a higher time frame level or are we on the sell side of a market maker sell model? Price has already completed its higher time frame buy side objective and has a sell program already commenced.
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If you do find that you are in a sell program, then what stage of distribution are you in relative to the dealing range from the point of origin to terminus? Have you identified a terminus?
And have you found confluence through deviations,
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grades, and a higher time frame draw to support your reason for entry? Which brings us on to step two, which is identifying the higher time frame draw and liquidity.
Once we've established whether we're in a market maker buy model or a market maker sell model in
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relation to that model, what is the likely higher time frame draw? Is the algorithm seeking buy side liquidity above an old high?
Or is it seeking sellside liquidity below an old low? Or maybe there is buy side imbalance below
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the market that the algorithm may want to repric to. Or maybe there's a sellside imbalance above the market that the algorithm is reaching higher for.
Again, this is easier when you understand where you are in the higher time frame market make maker buy or sell
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model. If we use this example and say that we are in a higher time frame market make maker sell model and we are currently on the sell side of the curve and above market we see a sellside imbalance that we anticipate that price will be drawn towards we can expect a
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short-term buy program to rebalance again I've gone through this example in previous lessons to remind you that by program to rebalance that higher time frame inefficiency will look like this as a market make a sell model on a lower time
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frame. These red lines are delineating the imbalance.
Now I always recommend that when you are looking for entries you use three different time frames. You use a higher time frame which will be your draw.
You
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use a mid time frame that will set the stage and your lower time frame should only be used for entries or placing your stop loss. refining it ideally, right?
But your reason for entry should be based on your midtime frame. So your
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stage, the reason for this is because a higher time frame array will be stronger than a lower time frame array. Right?
The algorithm will reach for a higher time frame level over the lower time frame level. Again, traders are often too dialed in on a lower time frame and
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they forget the higher time frame draw or the higher time frame key levels. So now this is where you have to make a personal choice depending on the type of trader that you are.
Are you a swing trader, position trader, scalper, short-term trader? Now dependent on your
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personality type and what you are naturally drawn towards is going to affect the type of time frames that you're going to use. Right?
A position trader may use the monthly time frame as a higher time frame draw and the weekly
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and or daily time frames as the stage or the entry time frame. A swing trader may use the weekly time frame as the higher time frame draw and the daily or the 4hour time frame as the stage and entry.
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A short-term trader may use the daily or the 4hour as the higher time frame draw and the hourly or 15minute time frames as a stage and the time frame for entry and scalper may use the hourly time frame as the higher time frame draw and
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the 15minut and 5 minute as the stage and entry time frames. In this example, we're going to use the 4hour time frame as our higher time frame draw.
We have already established that we are in a sell program inside of a market maker
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sell model on the 4hour time frame. We have witnessed the completion of a buy program to terminus which is the premium end of the sell side imbalance and we can see that here on the lower time frames.
This could be a 1 hour time frame for example. And we can clearly
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see the buy program of the market maker sell model. Now for step three, we have to wait for price to leave the consolidation.
Remember the consolidation starts everything. Once price leaves the consolidation in an expansion leg higher, we can expect price to retrace
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back into the consolidation. Our first buy entry signal would be found inside of the consolidation where we may have a fair value gap or an order block resting inside.
As a bonus, the high probability order block will be found at equilibrium
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of that consolidation range. Now, sometimes price may not retrace back to the consolidation, right?
We may get a breakaway gap. And again, I've explained this in a previous lesson.
In this case, we could take an entry when price returns back to a fair value gap inside
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of the expansion leg that left the initial consolidation. Again, as a bonus, if sellside liquidity rests above the fair value gap in the form of a swing low, then this is a high probability fair value gap.
Again, dependent on what your model is going to
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be, you can wait for a retracement back below equilibrium into a discount before you take an entry. But if you do find that there is a breakaway gap prior to the fair value gap that you were looking for, then we may not need to retrace back below into a discount relative to
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the dealing range. Dealing ranges have been explained in the academy.
Similar to our second entry, our third entry can be taken when price returns to a fair value gap inside of the expansion leg that left the first stage of
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accumulation. Again, if you blend this with time and or sellside liquidity resting above the fair value gap, this will form a high probability buy signal.
Now after the buy program has been completed and we have reached our
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terminus which in this case is the premium high of this sellside imbalance on the 4hour time frame. We can expect a change in state of delivery and a sell program to commence in order to attack the sellside liquidity resting below the
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initial consolidation of the buy program. There are aggressive entries that you can take for the sell program and there are more conservative entries that you can take for the sell program.
This is going to be down to personal taste and
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your appetite for risk. In my opinion, it is always better to wait for confirmation.
So for step three, we want to wait for price to reach that higher time frame level. If we have an old high to the left which sits just below the
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premium end of that 4hour fair value gap, this could be a turtle soup entry. Now the concept of a turtle soup is just to enter a short position above an old high if we are going lower.
As I have mentioned before, the highest probability turtle soups will happen
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when the algorithm is looking to kill two birds with one stone. In this case, it was looking to rebalance our 4hour sellside imbalance.
And if we have an old high with buyside liquidity resting above that high, which sits below the premium high of that 4hour imbalance,
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this will be a very high probability turtle soup entry. Now, if you want to be extremely precise and you have graded and measured the swing points within the market maker model and have found confluence with a higher time frame level and time aligns,
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you can enter a short position at the very high of the market maker cell model and patch the smart money reversal. Now, this is going to take some getting used to.
Essentially, it is a turtle soup of a turtle soup. It is the very high of the buy program.
If I am to trade this
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and I have a strong conviction and everything align, I will generally take a short entry over here, but it will be normally at either a quarter or half of my normal risk. I will reserve my positions with the highest risk after I have confirmation.
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And that usually happens after I have a confirmed change in state of delivery. We can take another sell entry when price returns back into the order block after we have confirmed the change in state of delivery.
If we are pairing the SMT concept with a correlated asset,
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then this gives us a stronger probability of a change in state of delivery. Our fourth entry can be taken inside of a breaker which overlaps with a fair value gap.
This is our unicorn entry. It's a very strong entry pattern and once we have confirmation of a change in
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state of delivery then this is a very high probability short entry. The final sell entry would be with our distribution block and our fair value gap.
This is our silver bullet entry. And usually this is the most explosive and the quickest to reach target.
If I
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could only trade one entry pattern with everything that I have discussed in this series, it would be the second stage of distribution in a market maker sell model or the second stage of accumulation in a market maker buy model. If you get an entry over here
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that aligns with time and we have sellside liquidity resting below the market and we have a higher time frame level sat below the initial consolidation and that also aligns with say four to five standard deviations of the manipulation swing then this is a
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very high probability trade. Now if we are in a higher time frame market make a sell model and the weekly expansion and the weekly time frame is set to go lower then my highest risk will be taken on
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the sell side of the market maker sell model. I will still trade the buy side of the curve.
I will reduce my risk in half since this is counter trend to the higher time frame sell program. Everything I have spoken about in this lesson, reverse this for the market
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maker buy model. And like always, go back through your charts and record your findings in a study journal of all the areas where you could have found an entry inside of a market maker buy or sell model.
As a bonus, look for the
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times of the day, days of the week when these entries form. So with that, I'd like to say thank you for watching and I will catch you again in the next lesson.