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Category: Cryptocurrency Analysis
Tags: AltcoinsBitcoinEthereumInvestmentMarket
Entities: AvalancheBitcoinCardanoDogecoinEthereumLitecoinS&P 500SolanaTrump
00:00
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. This is certainly an unplanned video.
Um honestly I like I was I was busy with the um you know with the family earlier
00:16
and so I was I was sort of watching the markets but I was also kind of busy so I was not able to do a live stream or anything like that. And it it it seems like some of the stuff we've talked about has has now played out.
So, I want to talk about some of that stuff. Um,
00:33
there's quite a bit to talk about actually. And I feel like the first thing we kind of need to do is is go through and just have like a damage report on like what actually happened today.
Um,
00:50
and because like I like I was looking and like I was looking at Bitcoin and and Bitcoin had a drop which is fine. I mean, you know, it's it kind of expected to have natural volatility with Bitcoin, but um like some of the prices on some of the altcoins, I mean, they they got
01:06
absolutely annihilated, right? Like absolutely annihilated.
We saw altcoins down like 50% or something. I mean, it was just like I couldn't even believe it.
Like I was I was looking at Bitcoin dominance and it was at 59 and then it was a 60 and then it was a 61 and then
01:21
like the next minute it was a 62 and then it was a 63 and it it just kept going higher and what was crazy I mean it shows you just how thin liquidity is in the altcoin market because Bitcoin at the end of the day I mean Bitcoin how
01:37
much did it drop yesterday technically it's it's I mean from from daily open to daily close Bitcoin only dropped 7% right It actually found support at the 20week moving average. Let me go ahead and share my screen before you guys yell at me because I feel like I I'll be with
01:53
how much, you know, with with just how crazy things are, I feel like I'll go the whole stream and forget to even show my screen and I'll just be talking to no one. Um, but yeah, you can see that that Bitcoin on the daily here, I mean, it found support essentially at at its 20week
02:10
moving average. And like I was looking at other parts of the market obviously, right?
I mean, you guys know I've been talking about Ethereum going to the 20we estimate, the 21week EMA for a long time and a lot of people, you know, faded that call and here we are, right? like
02:28
it it went down there. And um look, I told you guys like I told you guys what my outlook was.
I could be wrong, right? And every step of the way, I will admit I could be wrong about my next prediction, right?
Like I could be. I don't know.
I mean, when Ethereum went
02:44
home, I said it was going to go to alltime highs. When it went to all-time highs, I said, "All right, expect a 30% drop." And it always seems crazy, you know?
But guess what? Guess how much Ethereum dropped.
Anyone care to guess how much Ethereum
03:00
dropped from the high to the low? A 30% drop, right?
So, like I have on one hand I have people saying like, well, you know, it's because of what Trump said about the tariffs. It's a black swan.
Guys,
03:16
there's always some BS narrative that you can assign to anything. Trump has been talking about tariffs non-stop like all year long, you know, and there's been plenty of times he's talked about tariffs and the market didn't react at all, right?
Because the market doesn't care. A lot of this is, you know, people
03:34
trying to find a reason to justify certain things. But you could argue for something like Ethereum, you could argue that it was always going to drop 30%, right?
It was always going to go back to its its bull market. Why?
03:49
Because that's what it always does in the post having year in September October temp that's what it always does is it drops down there and every sing even in the even in 2020 right you got that 30% drop even in 2021 you got the 30% drop 2017 right I mean you can see
04:06
it it's what always happens and so I mean it's it's certainly infuriating to me when like we talk about it people say it's wrong and then it ends up happening and then when it happens they're like well you got lucky Does anyone remember what the narrative
04:22
in 2017 was that caused that sell-off? No.
No one cares. No one knows.
No one cares, right? Does anyone remember what it was in 2020 that caused it?
Anyone remember in 2021? No one knows.
No one cares. In a few
04:38
years, no one's ever going to look back at this drop and be like, "Oh, it was caused because Trump tweeted out something about tariffs." No one's going to care. And no one's going to assign that narrative to it.
The only narrative is just going to be the same narrative, the same damn narrative we've had, and
04:54
that's that Ethereum after the rally in in into August, local top in August, what normally happens, it drops to the bull market support band. Sometimes it happens in in September.
Sometimes it it goes down there in early
05:11
October. In 2017, it was still at the 20we SMA, even in early November, right?
So, this is just what happens in the market. Bitcoin
05:26
had a had a had a kind of a scary drop, right? It had a scary drop.
And look, guys, I've said for a long time Q4 is not the time to be complacent. It's not.
I fully expect, and I will say this again,
05:43
from the high in Q4, whatever the high ends up being, to the low in 2026, Bitcoin will likely drop 70%. Okay, that's what I think.
I could be wrong, but that's what I think. I
06:00
don't know exactly when the high is going to come. Obviously, we have to at least talk about the uncomfortable outcome of what if the high is already in, right?
There's always a chance that that's the case. But what I would argue, my my argument
06:18
here is that because the sort of the all these indicators that people have spent forever creating, none of them have really triggered any of the peak indicator stuff, that doesn't mean they will, right? There's a chance that they won't.
There's
06:34
absolutely a chance that they won't. But I think right like I think that so long and I'll say I've said it for for a year, right?
All right, I've set it for probably at least a year until we get
06:53
two weekly closes below the 50we moving average, then we cannot we cannot make that declaration, right? We cannot make that declaration.
And sure, like we can look at at the ROI from the low, right? Like
07:09
the scariest chart right now to look at for Bitcoin is the ROI from the low because when you measure it from the low, it's possible the cycle's over, right? Absolutely possible.
But there's other ways you can measure it which are not
07:24
like as scary. Okay, if you measure it say peak to peak, you look peak to peak, you know, there's still a chance.
I mean, you could argue two cycles ago lasted 1473 days and we're currently at day 1433, right? So, there's a chance
07:42
that it might mimic that. In terms of in terms of structurally, what does this cycle look like the most?
It looks like the 2017 cycle, right? I mean, look at it.
It looks really similar. Go to days since Bitcoin has had a 50% drop.
08:00
It looks like the 2016 2017 cycle, right? where there was very low volatility for like the entire cycle and then all of a sudden at the end of it we got a 50% drop at the end of the bull mark or at the end of the bull market 50% drop and then we went
08:15
sideways for 2018 and got another 50% drop at the end of it. So structurally it still looks like the 2017 cycle for me.
I have a plan on how I'm navigating
08:31
this. Now, I don't know how you're navigating it, and you need to have your own plan, but what I've said is that what makes the most amount of sense throughout this entire cycle, except I made one exception in April of
08:47
2025, all cycle, what have I said? I have said Bitcoin is the better hold.
Why? because it gives you exposure to the upside, but it also minimizes your
09:05
downside risk. Altcoins are the opposite during Bitcoin dominance uptrends, right?
What what do altcoins give you? They minimize your upside and they maximize
09:20
your downside risk. That's just the way it is.
You don't take it out with me, take it out with the data. Because after all this time, we're now what?
Four years in now. After all this time, altcoins today
09:38
put in a new low against Bitcoin for this cycle today. So, every single person, every single guru on YouTube and Twitter who told me I was blowing smoke and how I was missing alt season, every single one of them was wrong.
Because as
09:56
of October 10th, 2025, altcoins went to a new low, a new cycle low on their Bitcoin pairs. So, when you look at the collective altcoin market, I'm not talking about your altcoin.
Get
10:11
off my back. When you look at the collective altcoin market, there was not a single time this entire cycle where it made sense to call for all season.
Not a single time. Not one.
I just did a video we released earlier today and I was
10:28
talking to you guys about how like every single one of these moves, this is total two minus divided by Bitcoin. Every single one of these moves, everyone keeps calling alt season, right?
This was the Salana alt season in 2024 and then in late 2024 it was the memecoin super cycle alt season. Think about those gurus who got you convinced it was
10:44
a memecoin super cycle all while they're just bleeding out to Bitcoin. And then recently we had the ETH and B&B alt season, right?
This is alt season, right? Like in in 2017 that's alt season.
In 2021 that was alt season. No anything experienced this
11:01
cycle has not been alt season. So again it it does feel somewhat I mean I feel somewhat justified for all the Bitcoin dominance videos.
Right. It it feels like there's some level of justification there that, you know, everyone gave me
11:18
such a hard time about just saying stick with Bitcoin and here we are. Now, I made one exception back in April, right?
I did. What did I say?
The only exception I've made publicly
11:37
was Ethereum. And the reason I made the exception in April for Ethereum is because it went home, right?
Is because it went home. And so at that point, I had no like I couldn't be
11:55
bearish on the ETH Bitcoin valuation anymore. And the reason I couldn't be bearish on it was because if you look at every time in history, right, it e every time in history that that ETH Bitcoin bottoms in its cycle, it's always when
12:12
Ethereum goes home. So, I know it felt like I was crazy calling for Ethereum to go home, but look, when it went home, ETH was able to bottom against Bitcoin for this cycle.
for this cycle. And so I went from just
12:31
wearing my Bitcoin maxi hat, which is a pretty nice hat if we're being honest. You know, people throw the Bitcoin maxi, the sort of the toxic Bitcoin maxi stuff around, but the the sobering re truth, the sobering reality for everyone in
12:48
crypto is that being a Bitcoin maxi is not a bad thing. You know, it's not just sticking with the king is is a great way to just to go, right?
It's it is. And
13:05
so what, right? So what if if some people are Bitcoin maxis?
So what, right? I mean, for basically the entire cycle, my crypto portfolio was just only Bitcoin, you know, and and and I I heard like, oh, well, you know, you're missing all these altcoin gains, but like what altcoin gains?
They're they're putting
13:20
in new lows today. what have I really missed out on?
So, I did make an exception, right? I mean, I feel like deep down we're all kind of Bitcoin maxis at heart at this point in the cycle, but I did make an exception and I said in April, I think having some ETH
13:36
can make sense now because I think ETH is bottoming against Bitcoin. And then what I said was that Ethereum should go to new all-time highs.
It was a bold call when it was sitting at $13,400. You know, everyone was dunking on Ethereum, saying it was dead, blah,
13:52
blah, blah, right? Same old same old stuff.
And it went to alltime highs. But then what did we say?
We said it's going to get rejected on the first attempt. It's going to sweep the high and it's going to go back down to the bull market support band.
Now,
14:10
listen. To me, this is what I wanted to see.
I don't need to see anything else for Ethereum to be convinced that it can't go to new another alltime high. Now, I think it's possible.
Now, again, I will warn you at some point I've had it like
14:27
I've had a pretty good pretty good run for the last year or so, but at some point I'm going to get something wrong. And I don't know if we're now reached that point.
There's a chance that we have, right? Let me give you an example.
14:43
For example, if the if the top for Ethereum is already in, then it was always going to go to the bull mark pin, right? So, to some degree, there could be confirmation by like, oh, it's it went there.
Now, it must go to alltime highs, right? That's what I think.
But maybe I'm wrong. Like,
15:00
maybe the top's already in and and perhaps this is where I take the I take the loss because I did accumulate. I I I did quote unquote buy the dip today.
I mean, obviously, I was more interested in Ethereum at $1,300 and $1,400.
15:17
Um, you know, down here and even right here. It's not as attractive to me to be completely honest at $3500, but you know, I mean, so what?
I mean, still, if it goes to new all-time highs from here, it's still it still could be a decent
15:33
return in the short term. Um, I've mostly focused uh recently on on commodities and you know and having those positions in the last like year or so instead of in in altcoins and whatnot and and we've seen palladium do well.
We've seen gold, we've seen silver, we've seen uranium, like all these
15:49
things are doing really really well. And I sit here on like a day like today, I'm like gosh, like every like all these commodities I keep talking about keep doing well and all coins are down 50%.
There's always a bull market somewhere even if it's not where you want it to be, right? You can make money if you're willing to to step out of your your
16:06
comfort zone and and you know be invested in things that aren't aren't shiny little altcoins that have a cute little dog associated with them. So what I think is going to happen, right?
What I think is going I I could absolutely be
16:22
wrong. What I think's going to happen for Ethereum, and I don't know about your altcoin, unfortunately, but what I think is gonna happen for Ethereum is I think it'll rally to a new all-time high.
That's what I think. All right.
16:38
Now I have to have a an invalidation point, you know, because if this is where I go down for the cycle, right? If this is if this is it,
16:55
I need to cut my losses before we're like way back down here, you know? Like I don't I don't I'm not interested in riding Ethereum from 3500, you know, back down to 1500.
Okay? I'm not interested in that.
In fact, that
17:11
might happen next year. That would be my base case is that next year we get a big crash in crypto.
But that starts this year. It could start this year.
And it might already started. Maybe it has.
But I need an invalidation point. And so
17:29
for me, what is the invalidation? What is it?
Well, for Ethereum, I would really like to not see it close down here. One weekly close below the 20we SMA could be okay, but I would not
17:47
want to see more than one. And the reason why is because we're so far along in this cycle, we just don't have time to deal with any of that.
not like we don't have time. It's already Q4, right?
If if Ethereum is going to go to new all-time high, it
18:02
it's got to be in the next two to three months. Otherwise, that's it, right?
That's all she wrote. And we'll see you next cycle.
We'll play chess next year and we'll get really good at that and we'll we'll repeat this whole thing in in, you know, 2027 or whatever. But there's got to be an invalidation for
18:19
me. Ethereum, the the Ethereum chart is not the invalidation I'm looking at.
So, like I I don't want to see Ethereum get a weekly close below the 20week moving average. But that's not even the invalidation I'm looking at.
The invalidation that I'm I would be looking at to figure out and say, "Hey, I'm
18:36
wrong." Right? And I've been right about a lot recently.
So, I I know like I know it's coming. I know I'm going to be wrong about something soon.
I keep saying that. I don't know what it's going to be.
Is Bitcoin. All right.
18:52
What did we what have we always said for the last four years? Bitcoin leads the bull market, right?
What do we know about Bitcoin's 50week moving average? Every single time in history that it's gotten the weekly
19:09
close, a couple of weekly closes below its 50week moving average, either in the post having year or the early part of the midterm year. every single time.
That was confirmation that the top was in.
19:26
It doesn't matter if you like it or if I like it. That's what it always was.
When the close below the 50we SMA occurred, the top was in and we were in a bare market at that point. I believe Bitcoin will have a bare market.
I don't know if
19:43
it's going to be October 2025 to October 2026 or November to November or December to December. I don't know.
It's going to be one of those probably. If you made me guess, I would say 40% chance October, 20% chance November, 40% chance
19:58
December. 40 20 40.
So, there's a decent chance it happens this month. If you want to go ROI based off the low, if you want to go ROI based off the peak or just look structurally or look at the peak indicators, December's just as likely as October.
The reason why I don't think November,
20:14
although I suppose it could be November, is that I mean, normally Bitcoin likes to do something different each cycle. Like last cycle it topped in November.
The cycle before that it was December. The cycle before that was like November again.
I just don't think it's going to repeat exactly what it did last cycle because last cycle was a little bit
20:31
different than the cycle before. Like last cycle, everyone was sitting here thinking like, oh, maybe it'll go up into December, even go up into 2022.
And it didn't. It topped in November.
And I and in 2017 it was in December. So maybe it tops in October.
20:46
Maybe it goes until December. What would I look for to provide confirmation?
Weekly closes below the 50week moving average. Right.
Where is the 50WE moving average? 101K.
All right. So just so you guys know and
21:04
so we're on the same page. You got to know I'm going to get something wrong at some point.
I hope Ethereum going to all-time highs is not one of them. I hope Ethereum does go to all-time highs now.
But I have to have I mean when we're talking to how many people are watching 10 thou 9,000 people, make sure
21:20
you guys like the video if you guys are if you guys are here. Um I feel like I at least deserve that.
But you guys have to know I have to have a contingency plan. I don't want you know I don't want anyone just holding stuff as it as it drops back down like 50, you know, 70 80% or something.
21:38
my get out of dod I mean like the is that 50we estimate weekly closes below that I'm gone I'm out of here you I'm out of the cryptoverse for uh you know probably at least 6 months okay so
21:54
that's my number I would be out of everything right I mean maybe I'd still hold some Bitcoin maybe like 20 30% or something but I'd be out I'd be out of Ethereum I'd be out of you know out of out of thing at that in crypto if we get weekly closes below
22:10
that because it's always meant the bare market is underway. So when I look at Ethereum, I feel like it did exactly what I wanted it to do.
I I think it's going to go rally now to alltime highs, even though it sounds absurd. You know, it also
22:26
sounded absurd to say it was going to drop 30% and then it did. I think it's going to go to all-time highs.
Now, if I'm wrong, I will come out here and admit it. If Bitcoin gets weekly closes below the 50week moving average, I will admit it as quickly as I can.
I'm not
22:42
going to like hide, right? I will admit it as quickly as I can.
That's what I would look for. But in the meantime, I I think Ethereum I I mean, I it's going to take a little bit of time to repair things.
Um,
22:58
but I I think there's a a reasonable chance here that we end up building out support in this area and getting one final rally into the market cycle top. One final rally for all the glory.
23:15
So, we'll see if it happens. We'll see if this is where my streak comes to an end or not.
But, this is my this is what I think is going to happen now. If we do a damage report, I like I honestly I did not know how bad it was
23:31
until like a couple of hours ago when I looked at some of these altcoins, guys. Some of this stuff doesn't even make I mean like it just like look at look at some of these.
Link dropped to $8. $8.
23:48
Litecoin, the poor thing, 72 bucks. Yeah, you guys, we should have known this liquidation was coming because Litecoin was pumping yesterday.
Litecoin, whenever Litecoin rallies, it always signals something bad is happening. Look at the Litecoin Bitcoin
24:04
valuation. I mean, look at this wick on on Binance.
Like, it went all the way down to 500 sats basically. Salana, you know, look, Salana, like I haven't said, I mean, to
24:20
be completely honest, like I haven't said a lot of things about Salana, but I will say this, it held its own today. you know, like given the extent of the selloff, it didn't it didn't drop nearly as much
24:38
as as you would think because the issue is that some of these other altcoins, like look at Avalanche. Look at this wick.
It went down to eight bucks. I mean, it went it did it I mean, did it put in a new low?
24:53
It went down to 876. Is not a new low.
Not a new cycle low. But think about that.
Like I think about that. Was there ever a great time to be a long-term holder on Avalanche this
25:10
cycle? No.
Because it just keeps on dropping against Bitcoin. And if you look at its Bitcoin valuation, I don't want to look at it.
I mean, look at this. You keep going.
XRP dropped to a dollar.
25:27
I mean, that's a massive drop. a dollar.
Unis swap two bucks. Unis swap today put in a new cycle low.
A new cycle low.
25:44
Now let's think for a minute here. We have altcoins today that dropped 70% or so over this week.
70%. Bitcoin dropped 9%.
26:02
I told you guys that a 10% drop by Bitcoin could lead to a 30 to 40 to 50% drop by alts. I was wrong.
I was wrong. It led to 70% drops in some of them.
I overestimated the the the amount of liquidity they
26:17
had. I overestimated it.
Cardano dropped to 28 cents. You know, I I used to say all the time that ADA was going to 400 SATs and I and I told you guys altcoins are oscillators of best.
It went to 260 SATs. 260.
26:36
Madic new cycle low all the way down to 14 cents. Doge not a new low, but it went down to 9 cents.
So, absolute carnage
26:52
in the crypto markets today. Absolute carnage.
And look, I mean, there's going to be people spooked because when you look at the ROI of Bitcoin from the low, you can't ignore it, right? I mean, we can't just sit here and pretend like it's not happening.
Like, there's a chance. That is it.
27:08
And if we get weekly closes below the 50we moving average, you just got to move on. move on with the I'm going move on with my life and and we'll we'll talk more we'll we'll talk about it and we'll say we'll see you guys next year.
But if
27:23
there is anything left in this cycle, if you want to take the more optimistic approach, right, it's going to happen soon because I I'm convinced I mean I I think next year will be a bare market and it'll and the top should be sometime this year for Bitcoin. That's what I think.
27:41
So, make sure you guys give the video Oh, make sure you guys give the video a thumbs up if you haven't yet. Um, and I I'll look at at some of the comments here in a little bit, but one of the one of the interesting things
27:59
is ETH Bitcoin. Do you guys remember where I said that ETH Bitcoin was going to drop to?
I said it was going to drop to its 20week moving average, right? You guys remember that?
Look at this.
28:14
Right to the 20week moving average. Right there is where the wick was.
Now, there is a chance it goes below it. Like it I mean it it did go below it back over here a little bit.
Like it's not like it's impossible for it to drop below it. Um
28:31
even in you know even in like late 2017 we got like a drop below the bull marks. So like it's not impossible for it to go below it.
But the easy trade already happened, right? Because all you know if you wanted to because what I did
28:46
was I skimmed some profits when Ethereum went to 4,900. I told you guys that, right?
I told you guys skim profits now and then you can you can put it back in when it drop after the after it tags 21 week. Well, tada.
Here we are. But if you traded your ETH back to Bitcoin up
29:02
here, we said that after Ethereum sweeps an all-time high in its USD pair, ETH Bitcoin is going to fall back to its bull market. That's now happened.
Now, I think that ETH has bottomed against Bitcoin for this cycle. And so, I'm looking for a macro higher low on this
29:19
pullback for Ethereum. I'm looking for a macro higher low.
It could already be in. It's possible it could go a little bit lower like it it could go all the way down to like 0.03, maybe even 0.029 in kind of like a worst case scenario or something, but
29:36
ultimately I think Ethereum will get another move against Bitcoin before the cycle's over. That is at least my base case right now.
What was really hard to articulate, but I feel like I did a pretty damn good job of it is I said, do you guys remember I said I mean I
29:51
literally said this was going to happen that that ETH Bitcoin would put in higher lows and that on each of these higher lows altcoins would put in lower lows and that's exactly what's happening. ETH is putting in higher lows on its Bitcoin pair and alts are putting in lower lows.
30:08
Right? This is exactly it's the same thing.
This is what we said was going to happen. Lower lows for the collective altcoin market against Bitcoin while ETH Bitcoin puts in higher lows.
So when people keep asking me like, you know, is
30:23
Bitcoin dominance going to go to a new high? I'm like I was always like, well, it depends on how low ETH goes against Bitcoin because even though altcoins put in a new low against Bitcoin today, Bitcoin dominance did not go to a new cycle high, at least not yet.
And the
30:39
reason for that is because ETH Bitcoin is not at new cycle lows. And I don't think Ethereum is going to go to new lows against Bitcoin this cycle.
It maybe it will next year. I don't think it's going to happen this year.
So like it's so hard to know the nuance of like, you know, will Bitcoin dominance go to a
30:56
new all-time high for this cycle. If ETH has already bottomed against Bitcoin, it's possible, but it depends on where ETH ends up bottoming against Bitcoin.
If it bottoms at 033, then it's unlikely. If it bottoms at 0.03 and we got another flush coming for all Bitcoin
31:12
pairs, then it's entirely possible Bitcoin dominance sweeps the prior high, kind of like it did last cycle, right? And you know, I I just made a video about Bitcoin dominance today.
And I said, look guys, in October of 2020 and
31:28
October of 2017, Bitcoin dominance ended the month at 64%. October 2017, October 2020.
So, I was like, "All right, well,
31:43
October 2025." And sure enough, we just went all the way up there. 63 and a half%.
Not quite 64. Doesn't mean we won't hit 64.
It's been a stressful cycle, honestly. I mean, it really has.
It's been a
32:00
stressful cycle because like I feel like everyone wants everything to be more complicated but like the right answer this entire cycle has just been stick with Bitcoin you know I mean maybe pick up something here or there but like dominance is going to go higher alts are going to bleed against Bitcoin. I think
32:15
to some degree the the entire asset class is going through this like you know this maturity process where like everyone comes every wants to be like a penny stock investor because they think that's the way to get rich and it turns out just holding the blue chips was the way to get rich. Uh, who knew?
But it is
32:31
interesting. And and the other thing that we talked about was how the S&P 500 should get a 5% drop either late September, early October.
Now, it's down 2 and a half% already. I think the S&P 500 is going to go to the bull market sport band.
So, watch for
32:48
that to happen in the coming weeks. I think you're going to see that to see that play out.
By the way, when you look at the S&P divided by M2, it's getting the correction exactly when it got it in 1999. Same time frame.
Look at this. I know you guys aren't going to believe me, so I'll show you.
Um,
33:06
take a if you look from the low here, October, the low to the first like this to this 5% correction right here that we're at right now. That top occurred about yeah I guess we wicked a little bit of it a little bit later but about 29 weeks about 29 weeks after the low.
33:24
What's really interesting is that in 20 or 1999 1998 the low was in October and then that local high was in April. Now it's reversed.
The local low was in April and now the local high is in October. But if you take a if you look at the date range on here from April 7th
33:41
to where we are now about 26 weeks, like it's basically the same time frame in terms of in terms of the wick high and maybe it's going to play out like it did back over there where it it got a big drop, right? Like it gets a drop and then it goes right back up and then
33:57
comes back down. But I do think that you're going to see the S&P 500 tag that 20week moving average.
And it's possible if this whole thing is playing out like it did back then, it's possible we're just in this massive distribution phase
34:13
that's going to take a while, you know. And what's really interesting about it is when you look at a bar pattern on this from 1996, it lines up exactly.
And I don't I mean,
34:29
I'm not of the opinion it's going to forever, but look at that. I mean, it's like it's like the same thing.
I mean like these these 20% drops even happened at the same time, you know, and so just be aware that as we get closer, you know, to the end of the cycle and
34:44
whatnot, there's just the narratives are going to be flip-flopping constantly. And and you can see back then how many times the narratives probably flip-flopped before we finally got the crash that that took us down.
Who knows how long it's going to take, but I will again I will reiterate
35:00
until Bitcoin gets weekly closes below the 50we moving average, there's still a chance it goes higher. But when you get below this, I think it's time to cut and and run for the hills.
35:18
We're not below that yet. Hopefully Ethereum can hold.
Hopefully it can go to new alltime highs. Um, I I gota there's some other things we got to talk about.
Um, I wonder what Bitcoin dominance excluding stables did.
35:34
Okay, it went all the way back up to 67%. All right.
Um, interesting chart. Total three minus divided by Bitcoin, it hit
35:50
uh 0. 29 29.
All right. Now, I know what you're thinking.
Is that good enough? Well, I don't know.
Maybe.
36:06
But what I will say is that right now as we sit here today, the week of October 10th, all Bitcoin pairs are at.37. And the week of October 9th, 2017,
36:27
all Bitcoin pairs were also at.37. They bottomed in early November.
That's 2017. That's when they bought it.
Is that going to happen again? I don't know for sure, but
36:43
it's something you have to think about. Now, I've told you guys for a long time that my base case was 0.25 for all Bitcoin pairs and we just went to 0.29.
Now,
36:59
the issue at this point is that while I think Bitcoin dominance should stay strong throughout this month, you know, this is one of those things where like it might be willing, it might
37:17
be prudent to flip the bias in about 3 weeks regardless of where it is. And one of the reasons I say that is because if you add in USDC to this calculation,
37:36
guess what? It hit 0.25 today.
So, with that in mind, I'm not sure
37:52
I'm not sure it makes sense to be overly deterministic at this point about it, right? It hit 0.25 when you account for both USDT and USDC.
38:08
But I'll tell you this, there's not there's still no guarantee that it can't go lower. And the reasoning for that is because technically speaking, and as we can all agree, being technically correct is in
38:24
fact the best way to be correct. Technically speaking, last cycle it actually went to 0.18.
It did not bottom at 0.25. And so one of the things that's kind of always kept me bearish on all Bitcoin
38:39
pairs was the fundamental understanding that altcoins are oscillators at best, not worst. At best.
So, I was always thinking, well, you know, they'll come back down here eventually
38:55
because even if I should be including more stable coins and and whatnot, even if you could argue that this is the low when you compare it, you know, this is the same as this when you, you know, use use more stable coins. Even with that understanding in mind, there's always
39:11
this like little voice in my head that will always continue to say, "How can you ignore the lower highs and lower lows?" Right? And I I think that's the reason why I' i've kind of always kept
39:28
that bias on all Bitcoin pairs is like I I've always known that like I maybe if I include more stable coins and we've talked about it and I've said before, right? Like it doesn't matter until we're closer to the end of the cycle.
Well, now we're getting closer. Maybe we should include more stable coins.
But one of the other reasons why it was
39:43
always easy to stay bearish on all Bitcoin pairs was because like I'm like well you know you have like technically speaking you have a you have a high and a lower high and a low and a lower low. So I'm over here thinking like all right well you know you look at this chart and
40:01
um like why you know bottoming at 0.25 was always like you know that was the optimistic view that was the optimistic view. And what's really interesting about this parallel channel, I mean, I roughly drew it, but you could argue that this capitulation wick right here is to the halfway point.
It's to the
40:16
midpoint of the channel. You can see that in, you know, in 2020, that's where we got rejected for a little bit.
So, I think what makes the most amount of sense is
40:33
surprise to stay bullish on dominance for now. And I don't know exactly how high it's going to go.
And in the short term, I wouldn't be surprised to, you know, to see it kind of bounce around a little bit while people figure out what the hell's going with their altcoins. But I think it
40:50
makes sense to stay bullish on Bitcoin dominance for at least the next three weeks. And in 3 weeks time I'll I'll look and and see like you know uh what's going on and and maybe you
41:05
know maybe I will I will have a different view at that time. But I've always said it's better to know which way the wind is blowing to try to predict exactly where it's going to stop.
And I don't know exactly where
41:21
it's going to stop in terms of how high Bitcoin dominance will go. But I do think we're still blowing in the Bitcoin dominance direction for now.
One of the things to remember, and I've always said this, and I'll keep saying it,
41:37
Bitcoin leads the bull market. If the cycle is over, then Bitcoin's going to be heading down to the 50week moving average soon and getting weekly closes down there.
And that'll be confirmation that the cycle is over. If the cycle is not over, then Bitcoin will not get a
41:53
weekly close below the 50week moving average. And it will probably be one of the first things to hit a new all-time high.
If Bitcoin can't hit new all-time highs from here, what the hell chance do any of the altcoins have? At least most of
42:08
them. They don't have much of a chance.
So in all these prior moves by Bitcoin, when you look at sort of these range highs that are set, one of the things to keep in mind is that Bitcoin dominance
42:25
was able to rally up until the point where Bitcoin broke through the highs, right? And you'll see that after Bitcoin broke through the highs, that's where Bitcoin dominance got these larger corrections.
42:43
And even over here, Bitcoin broke through and then Bitcoin dominance got this massive correction. So, because Bitcoin is around $14,000 away from an all-time high, if it were to move back
42:59
up to that price, then the bit then dominance should go up, right? it should go up.
If it doesn't go up there and the cycle's over, dominant it should still go up as you saw today. So again,
43:16
Bitcoin still gives you exposure to the upside. It minimizes your downside risk on weekly closes below 50 week SMA.
I cut your losses and just get out or hopefully you still have profits. I mean, I imagine most people's cost basis is not above 100K.
I would say below 100K, we're in trouble for Bitcoin. If
43:32
we go below 100K on weekly closes as long as we're above that, there's there's still there's still chances, right? There's still chances uh in the market and especially for, you know, Ethereum.
I don't know. I mean, there's a lot of altcoins.
I don't know. I mean, it's it's tough to imagine that some
43:47
altcoins are are going to ever see I mean, I feel like there's a lot of major als. Uh I mean, that's a difficult topic for a conversation, but it's just kind of the reality of the situation.
Um we'll see what happens. Uh, I would I would
44:02
expect some type of further correction in the S&P 500 next week to get it back down to the 20we estimate. I mean, maybe it'll take it a couple weeks.
I I don't know, but it seems like a a a reasonable view to have. Those are my thoughts, guys.
I mean, that's essentially the damage report.
44:18
Um, I, you know, it's tough. Like, it when you sit when we sit up here and we say, "All right, 30% corrections coming." It's easy to sit there and and and know that it makes sense.
Then when you're down here, it's like, well crap, you
44:35
know, like what if that's it? Like hopefully it's not.
But um I'll tell you what, guys, if it's not over, if if if Ethereum does have another rally left in it, then I got to say, I mean, I feel like we'll look back at this moment and be
44:50
like, "Wow, like that was crazy." Um, I don't know. What does this look like on a lot?
Yeah, I guess it is on a long scale.
45:06
I hope I hope we get I hope we get one more move by Ethereum. Um, I I do think I do I mean with the with the capitulation today, the how thin the order books are, it it
45:22
kind of it kind of provides some potential confirmation of the of the butterfly harmonic view, the butterfly effect. If you guys haven't seen the butterfly effect videos I put out, um, go watch those because I I'm kind of leaning in that direction at this point.
I mean, there's not the liquidity is
45:38
spread pretty thin and whenever the whenever the more sustained sell-off comes, which I think is coming in 2026, like it's hard to imagine you don't get some deeper correction. But in the meantime, maybe we can find support here.
If you look at it, it's very similar to this
45:53
move in in June, right? You had a weekly close, you know, right here above the 20we SMA, but you had a wick down.
What if this is the same thing? Weekly close and a wick down.
So, you get your first move, your second move, and then you get
46:09
your third and final move to end the market cycle. So, let's see if it plays out.
Um, someone says, "Eth make the move soon."
46:25
I agree. It'll be the last high of the year.
Yeah, I think if we can get one more move, that'll be it. That'll be it for the cycle.
It's been a long cycle. I think a lot of us just want the cycle to be over.
Completely honest. Um,
46:40
make sure you guys give the video a thumbs up. Gosh, we have almost We have 12,000 people watching.
I don't know. That might be a new record.
We got 12,000 people watching and only 3.3,000 likes. So, what that means is that the like to viewer ratio is at 0.25.
What a
46:58
coincidence. Someone says the cycle's been underwhelming.
Yeah. Um I mean if you've been in Bitcoin it's been okay.
47:21
What's your final target for E? So I did a video on that.
Just go watch it. It's called Ethereum realistic price prediction or something like I I released it a few months ago.
E2 week. Yeah, it's there.
You can check that off the box.
47:40
Why does the cycle have to end this year? I mean, nothing has to happen, but it's just that's when they normally end, you know, and I don't I don't make the rules.
I just enforce them. Q4 2013, Q4 2017, Q4 2021, Q4 2025,
47:57
right? Like, I mean, that's just it seems to make the most amount of sense.
Why not
48:27
Can I show the extension from the 20week moving average for Bitcoin? Yeah.
Um, here's the log, the natural log of the price over the 20week moving average.
48:44
short-term bubble risk. Yeah.
I mean, it's it's barely above it. It's still above it, though.
Gosh. What's crazy is it's midnight and
48:59
we got we got like 12,000 people watching.
49:17
Uh there's too many comments. I can't It's How long we We've been going 49 minutes.
I don't know. You guys got anything else?
I mean, I hate I hate to just leave with 12,000 people watching, but I also I got other things to do.
49:52
Yeah, it's just most of people asking about all season. I think um I Let's see where the weekly closes come in at least.
50:07
What's crazy is silver hit 50 bucks. I know I know this stuff is like is like voodoo for some people and like it's like oh I don't want to touch precious metals.
But weeks like today or weeks like this week are certainly reasons. We even talked about palladium getting a
50:23
nice move off these lows now to like it which went all the way to 1,500 bucks. Um, but I digress.
50:42
All right, guys. We do have ITC Premium.
You guys can check that out if you want, but I mean, it's kind of we're kind of late cycle at this point.
51:03
Yeah. I mean, it's kind of hard.
I mean, I see a lot of people in the comments saying they lost a lot of money today. I mean, I look, I I think if you lost a lot of money today, just remember, we've all been there.
Like, there's not a single person, not a single guru on Twitter or YouTube that hasn't been in that same position. you know, I lost a
51:19
lot of money on altcoins in in prior cycles. Um, I would say, you know, I would say just like learn the lessons, move on, you know, don't beat yourself up too much.
It's not going to do anything. Um, and
51:35
you know, all I mean, all you really can ever do is is make the next best decision, right? rather than worry too much about what happened in the past, you know?
And unfortunately with with sort of these like Bitcoin dominant stuff and and the altcoin reckoning stuff we talked about, I mean, like as much as I wish that people would have just like listened, like I I always knew
51:52
that people would have to learn the hard way for a lot of this stuff, right? Like because I because I had to learn the hard way, you know?
I mean, like I I I watched alts bleed against Bitcoin this entire way. I started buying altcoins in the last cycle kind of like around this
52:07
point and then I just watched them continue to bleed out against Bitcoin for a really long time and I'm like gosh I should have just bought Bitcoin and not and not alts. Um and then eventually they rallied but the issue is that I basically required an all season just
52:23
to break even on some of them when you look at their Satoshi valuation you know just something to think about you know mistakes were made right uh but it's not something you can't learn from for the next cycle. All
52:53
right, guys. Um, make sure you guys subscribe if you're not.
Maybe you guys will get an all season whenever I hit a million subscribers. Maybe that's what Maybe that's what we're Maybe that's what it's waiting on.
53:18
Um, someone asked, "Has there ever been a drop in like this in Q4?
53:36
Let's see. Q4 2017.
I mean, I think the thing is is like Bitcoin hit the bull market support ban here in Q or I guess it was September 2017. In 2021, it was added in like late
53:51
September, maybe early October. I think we'll have to see if this ends up holding or not.
Like if we end up closing down here, then I think you could argue this is not what's happened in prior cycles, you know. Um if we
54:08
close up here, then, you know, it's possible to just kind of overlook it and just say we had one more test, right? All right, guys.
I think I'm going to wrap it up. I thank you guys for tuning
54:23
in. Make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com.
See you guys next time. Bye.